Would changing the pension triple lock pay for social care?
Labour wants to change how the state pension rises from 2030 and spend the savings on care. Here is how the triple lock works and how big the saving really is.
How much would Labour's change to the state pension triple lock save, and when, and could that pay for a National Care Service?
Part 1
What this is about
The state pension is a weekly payment from the government to people who have reached pension age, which is 66 and rising to 67 by 2028. It is the biggest single benefit the government pays. About 13.2 million people received it in August 2025, and it cost about £138 billion in 2024–25, roughly 5% of everything the economy produces in a year.
Each April the payment goes up. Since 2011 that rise has followed the triple lock. The pension rises by whichever is highest out of three things: price rises (inflation), the growth in average wages, or 2.5%. In April 2026 wages won, so the full new state pension went up 4.8% to £241.30 a week.
Because the rule always picks the highest number, the pension creeps ahead of both prices and wages over time, a bit like a ratchet. The government's forecaster (the OBR) estimates that by 2029–30 the triple lock will be adding £15.5 billion a year to the bill compared with simply rising in line with wages. When the policy began, the estimate was £5.2 billion.
At Labour's conference on 29 September, Prime Minister Andy Burnham said he would keep the triple lock until 2030 and then change it. From April 2030 the pension would rise by at least inflation or 2.5%, and keep its value against wages over time, but without the yearly ratchet. He says the money saved would help pay for a National Care Service, giving free help with washing, dressing and eating.
It is back in the news because Burnham set out the plan again on 10 October and the Conservatives said they would keep the triple lock. The argument now is about how much the change saves, and when.
£138 billion
spent on the state pension in 2024–25, about 5% of the economy's yearly output
OBR
13.2 million
people receiving the state pension in August 2025
DWP
£15.5 billion
extra yearly cost of the triple lock by 2029–30, compared with rises in line with wages
OBR
Explainers
Explainer video
You may have heard that changing the pension triple lock will pay for free social care. Let's check.
Summary infographic
Would changing the pension triple lock pay for social care?
The triple lock raises the state pension each year by the highest of prices, wages or 2.5%.
£138 billion — state pension spending, 2024–25 — OBR
13.2 million — people receiving the state pension — DWP
£15 billion — yearly saving by 2039–40, in cash — Government, via IFS
£11 billion — the same saving in today's money — IFS
The trick: A saving quoted in a far-off year's money
It sounds like spare money ready to spend on care. In today's money the 2040 figure is smaller, in the next few years it may be close to nothing, and it is spending avoided rather than cash raised.
The change would save £15 billion a year by 2040.
The triple lock stays until 2030 under Labour's plan.
The IFS expects about £4 billion saved in 2034–35, possibly nothing.
Avoiding future spending does not raise new money for care.
Changing the triple lock could save billions in the long run, but little in the next few years, and care would still need paying for.
Part 2
What's being said
“The change would save £15 billion a year by 2040.”
Government officials, briefing on Andy Burnham's conference speech · Labour · 29 September 2026
How it was used
Given on 29 September alongside Burnham's speech, as the money that would help build a National Care Service in the next parliament.
How it could mislead
It is a cash figure for 2039–40, a decade after the change starts. Readers may picture £15 billion available soon.
What the figures say
In today's money it is about £11 billion. The IFS puts the range at £4 billion to £20 billion, expects about £4 billion in 2034–35, and says that year could save nothing if wages grow strongly.
“"The state pension is set to rise by more than £2,000 a year" by the end of the decade.”
Andy Burnham, Prime Minister · Labour · 10 October 2026
How it was used
In a statement published on 10 October explaining the care plan, used to show pensioners keep the triple lock for the rest of this parliament.
How it could mislead
It is a rise in cash, so part of it is just keeping up with prices. No starting year is given.
What the figures say
From £221.20 a week in 2024–25 to £241.30 in 2026–27 is already about £1,045 a year more (our calc). The rest depends on future wages and inflation.
“"The triple lock is our policy and we're keeping it."”
Kemi Badenoch, Conservative leader · Conservative · 6 October 2026
How it was used
Said on Times Radio on 6 October during the Conservative conference, setting the party against Labour's plan to change the triple lock from 2030.
How it could mislead
The pledge leaves out the cost of keeping the triple lock and does not say how it would be paid for.
What the figures say
The triple lock was brought in by the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition from 2011. The OBR estimates it will cost £15.5 billion a year more than wage-linked rises by 2029–30, up from £5.2 billion first expected.
Part 3
What the figures show
Why the triple lock costs more than planned
When the triple lock began, it was expected to beat wage growth only a little each year. In practice, high inflation and the 2.5% floor often won. The OBR says inflation or the floor set the rise in 8 of the first 13 years of the triple lock.
By 2029–30 the OBR expects the triple lock to cost £15.5 billion a year more than linking the pension to wages, and £22.9 billion more than linking it to prices. That is about three times the first estimate of £5.2 billion.
Compared with rises in line with wages, £ billion
Why the saving starts small
Burnham's plan does not cut anyone's pension and keeps the triple lock until 2030. After that, the pension still has to keep pace with wages over time. The saving comes only from dropping the extra boost in years when prices or the 2.5% floor beat wages.
So the saving builds slowly. The IFS expects about £4 billion a year in 2034–35, and says that year could easily save nothing if wages grow fast. The government's figure of £15 billion is for 2039–40, and £11 billion in today's money.
£ billion
Does a saving pay for care?
The IFS points out that stopping a cost that was never paid for does not create new money. Under the triple lock, the extra pension spending was already going to need higher taxes or more borrowing. Avoiding it leaves the care service still to be paid for.
For scale, the IFS says raising about £10 billion a year would take roughly 1p more on the main rate of VAT, or 1p more on every income tax rate.
The other side
- The pension started from a low base Supporters say the triple lock repaired years of decline. The Pensions Policy Institute says the basic state pension fell to 16% of full-time average earnings in 2008. In 2024 the new state pension was worth 26%.
- The long-run savings are large The saving grows over time. Labour puts it at £15 billion a year by the end of the 2030s and £50 billion by 2050, in cash. The OBR expects pension spending to rise from about 5% of national income to 7.7% by the early 2070s.