Is the UK tax burden at a record high?
Not yet. On official forecasts it soon will be. How much of that is down to Labour depends on where you start counting.
Is UK tax as a share of GDP at, or heading for, its highest level on record, and how much of the rise is due to Labour's budgets?
Part 1
What this is about
The “tax burden” is all the tax the government collects in a year, shown as a share of the size of the economy (GDP). It doesn’t tell you what any one person pays. It tells you how big tax is compared with everything the country produces.
The record is 37.2%, set in 1948-49, just after the Second World War. Tax then fell for decades, to about 33% just before the pandemic. Since then it has climbed back up. In the latest full year, 2025-26, it was 35.9%.
That is the highest since 1950-51, but still below the record. The official forecaster, the OBR, expects it to pass the record in 2027-28 and reach about 38% by 2030-31.
Ahead of the Budget on 28 October, the Conservatives blame Labour’s budgets. Labour said much the same about the Conservatives in 2024. Both are partly right.
37.2%
of GDP: the record UK tax burden, 1948-49
OBR databank, via Full Fact
35.9%
of GDP in 2025-26, the latest full year: highest since 1950-51
Full Fact, Sept 2026
38%
of GDP forecast for 2030-31: a post-war high
OBR, March 2026
Explainers
Explainer video
Made with Google NotebookLM from this page's brief. AI-generated; figures on this page are the checked ones.
Summary infographic
Is UK tax at a record high?
The tax burden is all the tax collected in a year, as a share of the whole economy.
37.2% — The record, set in 1948-49 — OBR
35.9% — Latest full year, 2025-26 — Full Fact
38% — Forecast for 2030-31 — OBR
37.1% — Forecast before Labour’s first Budget — OBR
The trick: Talking about a forecast as if it has happened
Today the tax burden is the fourth-highest on record, not the highest. “It is a record” is wrong now. “It is on course for a record” is right.
The tax burden is the highest it’s ever been.
Today it is fourth-highest on record.
It is forecast to break the record from 2027-28.
Frozen tax thresholds drive most of the rise.
Not a record yet, but heading for one. The climb began before Labour, and Labour’s budgets tipped it over.
Listen: audio overview
Made with Google NotebookLM from this page's brief. AI-generated; figures on this page are the checked ones.
Part 2
What's being said
“"Labour's first two budgets put taxes on course for the highest level ever recorded"”
Andrew Griffith, shadow chancellor (Conservative), PA interview/statement · Conservative · 10 October 2026
How it was used
Said by the shadow chancellor ahead of the 28 October Budget, as part of the Conservatives’ case against more tax rises.
How it could mislead
It is accurate about the forecast, but puts all the blame on Labour. The forecast was already 0.1 points short of the record before Labour’s first Budget.
What the figures say
Correct as a forecast. But before Labour’s first Budget the forecast was already 37.1%, just 0.1 points short of the record. Labour’s budgets pushed it over the line. They didn’t start the climb.
“"The tax burden is the highest it's ever been."”
Kemi Badenoch, Conservative leader, party website · Conservative · 10 August 2026
How it was used
Written by the Conservative leader on her website, in a demand to the Prime Minister ahead of the Budget.
How it could mislead
The present tense makes a forecast sound like fact. The latest full year is fourth-highest on record.
What the figures say
The latest full year was 35.9%. That is the highest since 1950-51, but fourth on record. On forecasts it becomes true from 2027-28.
“Paraphrase: the tax burden is at its highest in 70 years”
Rachel Reeves, then Chancellor (Labour), Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, July 2024 (as summarised by Full Fact) · Labour · 21 July 2024
Source neededHow it was used
Used by Labour shortly after the 2024 election, to describe what it had inherited from the Conservatives.
How it could mislead
It was broadly right, but depended on which year was meant. The burden had slipped slightly the year before.
What the figures say
2022-23 reached 36.3%, the highest since 1949. So this held, depending on which year was meant. The wording is a summary, not a transcript.
“"record tax burden"”
Robert Jenrick, Reform UK Treasury spokesman, post on X, earlier in 2026 (undated) · Reform UK
Source neededHow it was used
Used by Reform UK’s Treasury spokesman in a social media post about tax.
How it could mislead
Without a year, readers can’t tell whether it means today or a forecast. Today it isn’t a record.
What the figures say
No year is given. For today it doesn’t hold. For the forecast it does. Provisional until the post is dated.
Part 3
What the figures show
Where the record sits
The figures go back to 1948-49, when tax was 37.2% of the economy. It then fell for decades, to about 33% just before the pandemic.
Since then it has climbed, to 36.3% in 2022-23 and 35.9% in 2025-26. The forecast passes the record in 2027-28. The chart only shows years with published figures.
Sourced anchor years only. 2030-31 is a forecast (OBR via Lords Library). Different years come from different data vintages.
Sourced anchor years only — no intermediate values are shown.
The record was coming before Labour’s first Budget
In March 2024, on the previous government’s plans, the OBR already expected tax to reach 37.1%. That was just 0.1 points below the record.
Every forecast since has put the peak above the record, at about 38%. So Labour’s budgets turned a near-record into a record. Most of the climb from about 33% was already on the way.
Peak year shown in label. The 1948-49 record (37.2%) is for comparison.
Frozen tax thresholds do most of the work
When the point at which you start paying tax, or pay a higher rate, stays frozen while wages rise, more of people’s pay gets taxed. This is called fiscal drag.
Conservative chancellors froze the thresholds in 2021 and 2022. Labour extended the freeze to 2031. By 2030-31 the freezes raise £66.6bn a year: about four-fifths from the original freezes and one-fifth from Labour’s extension (our calc).
OBR Nov 2025 EFO Table A, via Commons Library. £bn, cash.
A record at home, middling abroad
Compared with other countries, the UK’s tax take in 2024 was a little above the OECD average, and second lowest of the G7 countries with figures. A record for the UK is not a high by world standards.
The other side
- Labour did choose to tip it over Without its tax rises in October 2024 and November 2025, the forecast would have stayed just under the record. Extending the freezes and raising employers’ National Insurance were Labour’s choices.
- Any government faces the same pressures An ageing population, health care and interest on debt push up spending whoever is in power. Governments of both parties have raised the tax take since 2019-20.
- The share of GDP isn’t the whole story A record tax-to-GDP figure says nothing about who pays. Tax on an average worker was the lowest in the G7 in 2024, before rising in 2025.