How much of the benefits bill is lost to fraud?
People guess that £24 in every £100 of benefits goes to fraud. The real figure is £2.20, though that has tripled since 2013.
What share of benefit spending is lost to fraud, how has that share changed since the comparison everyone quotes, and how far is it from what people assume?
Part 1
What this is about
Every year the Department for Work and Pensions checks a sample of benefit claims. From that it estimates how much money is paid out wrongly.
It splits the total into two parts. Fraud is when someone knowingly lies or hides a change in their situation. Error is an honest mistake, by the claimant or by the department. People often lump the two together.
In 2013 people were asked to guess how much of every £100 of benefits was lost to fraud. The average guess was £24. The official figure was 70p.
The latest estimate is £2.20 in every £100. That is much more than in 2013, but still about a tenth of what people guess.
£24
Public’s average guess, per £100 of benefit spending
Ipsos 2013
70p
Figure it was scored against
Ipsos 2013
£2.20
Latest DWP estimate, per £100
DWP, FYE 2026
Explainers
Explainer video
Most people think a lot of benefit money goes to fraud. It’s much less.
Summary infographic
How much of the benefits bill is lost to fraud?
Each year the government checks a sample of benefit claims to estimate how much goes to fraud.
£24 — Average public guess, per £100 (2013) — Ipsos
70p — Official figure at the time — Ipsos
£2.20 — Latest DWP estimate, per £100 — DWP, FYE 2026
The trick: Quoting an old number as if it’s current
A comparison that was right in 2013 is now about three times out. An argument built on the old number is arguing about a different year.
A large share of the welfare bill goes to people who are not entitled to it.
Fraud has tripled since 2013, to 2.2% of benefit spending.
That is still about a tenth of what people guess.
The old 0.7% figure is now out of date.
People guess a quarter. It is £2.20 in every £100, up from 70p in 2013. Check the date on any figure you hear.
Part 2
What's being said
Asked how much of every £100 of benefit spending is claimed fraudulently, the average answer was £24.
Ipsos for the Royal Statistical Society and King’s College London, 2013
The widest single overestimate recorded in the series — 34 times the figure it was scored against.
26% of the public named foreign aid as one of the government’s top two or three spending items. It was 1.1% of public expenditure.
Ipsos 2013; expenditure figure £7.9bn, 2011/12
A different shape of error: not a mis-estimated rate but a mis-ranked budget line.
“A large share of the welfare bill goes to people who are not entitled to it.”
Paraphrase of a framing in wide circulation
Source neededHow it was used
Used in arguments for tightening the benefits system.
How it could mislead
Fraud is often lumped together with honest mistakes, which makes it look bigger. Fraud alone is about £2.20 in every £100.
What the figures say
Fraud is 2.2% of benefit spending on the latest estimate. That is real money, and it has tripled since 2013. But it is about a tenth of what people assume.
“Foreign aid is one of the biggest things the government spends money on.”
Paraphrase of a framing in wide circulation
Source neededHow it was used
Used when arguing that cutting aid would free up a lot of money.
How it could mislead
Aid was about 1.1% of public spending. Without the whole budget alongside, people put it among the biggest items.
What the figures say
When people were asked, it was 1.1% of public spending. Yet a quarter of people put it in the government’s top two or three costs.
“Benefit fraud is only 0.7% of spending.”
A comparison still in circulation, drawn from the 2013 survey
Source neededHow it was used
Used to rebut claims that benefit fraud is widespread.
How it could mislead
It was right in 2013, but the latest figure is 2.2%. Quoting the old figure makes fraud look smaller than it now is.
What the figures say
This was correct in 2013. The latest figure is 2.2%. Using a 13-year-old number to argue about today doesn’t work.
Part 3
What the figures show
Fraud has gone up since 2013
The famous comparison is 24% against 0.7%. Today’s figure is 2.2%. That is still far below what people guess, but three times higher than the old number.
So the old figure is now out of date, and the people who quote it are often the ones trying to correct others.
Public estimate from Ipsos 2013; official rates as published
Two different mistakes
With benefit fraud, people guess a percentage that is far too high. With foreign aid, people think a small item is one of the government’s biggest costs.
They need different fixes. The first is fixed by giving the real rate. The second is fixed by showing the whole budget, so people can see where aid sits.
The other side
- 2.2% is still a lot of money A small percentage of a very large budget runs into billions of pounds. Both ways of putting it are true.
- Fraud and error are different Adding mistakes to fraud makes fraud look bigger. The figures on this page are for fraud only.
- It really has gone up Anyone saying fraud has risen is right. Anyone saying it is a quarter of the bill is out by about ten times.